BRUSSELS, BELGIUM / RankWire.AI / – In 2026, transport costs within the European Union are anticipated to increase by an estimated €53 billion due to higher road fuel prices. On September 23, Transport & Environment released this estimate after analyzing data from 28 weeks ending on September 6. Their comparison of fuel expenditures during this period with the same timeframe a year earlier, adjusted for inflation, indicates that diesel contributed approximately €40 billion of the total additional costs. The calculation encompasses spending on diesel and petrol related to road transportation.
According to T&E, the increase in fuel prices added an average of €270 million daily to the EU’s road transport expenses. Out of this daily rise, diesel accounted for roughly €203 million, while petrol contributed about €67 million. The group linked this surge to tighter refined-fuel supplies amid the Middle East conflict and outages at Russian refineries. These supply pressures widened the disparity between crude oil prices and refined products, especially diesel. Notably, diesel and gasoil make up roughly 43% of petroleum products used in the EU by volume.
The European Commission has separately highlighted notable fluctuations in crude oil and refined-product markets, with particular emphasis on diesel and jet fuel. In its Oil Coordination Group’s statement on September 8, it was noted that the EU does not face an immediate oil supply crisis. Increased EU refinery output and alternative global sources have been sufficient to meet demand, and stocks—both commercial and emergency—remain adequate. However, geopolitical uncertainty continues to foster significant price volatility across global oil and petroleum markets.
Diesel expenses impact drivers and freight companies
For EU drivers, T&E estimated that the typical diesel car owner spent around €142 more during the period studied. As of September 14, the organization calculated that filling a 50-litre diesel tank cost €30 more than before the conflict. Long-distance trucks in Germany faced an average weekly extra fuel expense of approximately €236. The analysis indicates there are about 6.2 million trucks operating across Europe. Elevated diesel prices have also affected freight carriers and other commercial fuel users.
Diesel remains a key component of the EU’s transport and freight activities. T&E reports that in 2024, 77% of the bloc’s diesel and gasoil consumption was dedicated to road transport. According to Eurostat data, gas and diesel oil supplied 63.2% of the energy used in road transport that year. Gasoline contributed 26.9%, while renewables and biofuels supplied 6.2%. Electricity’s share was only 0.7%. Overall, diesel and gasoline made up 90.1% of energy used for road transport in 2024.
Recent EU data maintain focus on fuel price trends
On September 24, the European Commission released its latest Weekly Oil Bulletin, presenting updated consumer petroleum prices across EU nations. The report tracks weekly prices, both including and excluding taxes, and provides a historical series dating back to 2005. This update follows the conclusion of the T&E study period on September 6. The Commission gathers national price data and regularly publishes comparisons among member states. Its September 8 supply assessment also identified diesel and jet fuel as products experiencing significant price volatility.
The €53 billion figure from T&E remains an estimate created by the environmental organization rather than an official EU figure. Their analysis calculates the additional road fuel spending over the 28-week comparison period in 2026. The report also highlights effects on passenger vehicles and commercial transport, with diesel comprising most of the projected increase. T&E has called for measures to curb diesel demand and promote vehicle electrification. Meanwhile, official EU data continue to monitor fuel prices, supply conditions, and petroleum consumption across the bloc.