ROME / RankWire.AI / – According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, global cereal output in 2026 is anticipated to reach 2.98 billion tonnes, reflecting a 2% decrease compared to the record set last year. Despite this decline, the organization stated that the total would still rank as the second-largest harvest ever. The current estimate is 3.4 million tonnes lower than its July forecast. This annual reduction of 61.1 million tonnes represents the most significant year-on-year decrease since 2018.
For maize, the forecast stands at 1.309 billion tonnes following less favorable crop prospects that lowered previous predictions. Unseasonably high summer temperatures and dry conditions adversely affected yields across major European Union producing regions, notably France and Poland. Official estimates also prompted downward revisions for India and Paraguay. However, Argentina and Brazil experienced better-than-expected yields, with both countries projected to produce well above their average maize outputs in 2026.
Wheat production globally is now forecast at 810.7 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from prior estimates. Gains in yield expectations for Canada and Morocco, each about 1.5 million tonnes higher, contributed to the upward revision. Additionally, forecasts for Russia and Ukraine saw an increase, while dry conditions in the European Union and United Kingdom led to reduced expectations. Despite the upward adjustment, global wheat output is still projected to be 3.8% below 2025 levels and remains the second-largest crop on record.
Maize declines contribute to global cereal forecast revision
The 2026/27 season’s rice production is estimated at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, representing a 1.9% drop from the revised record of 2025/26. The latest estimate is supported by higher yields in Sri Lanka and favorable conditions for Myanmar. These positive factors offset decreases in rice production in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where plantings hit multi-decade lows.
The FAO projects global cereal consumption at 2.965 billion tonnes for 2026/27, a slight increase of 0.2% from the previous season. While demand for coarse grains and rice is expected to grow, wheat use is anticipated to decrease from last year’s elevated consumption levels. World rice utilization is forecast at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increased food demand. Additionally, feed requirements remain significant, with barley consumption in China and maize use in the United States playing key roles.
Global cereal reserves stay relatively comfortable despite reductions
Forecasts for world cereal stocks at the end of the 2027 seasons stand at 947.2 million tonnes, a decrease of 10.7 million tonnes from previous projections but still 1.8 million tonnes above initial opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 31.6%, down slightly from 31.9% in the prior season. While wheat reserves are predicted to increase in Russia and Ukraine, reduced inventories of maize and barley have dampened the overall stock outlook.
The international cereal trade for 2026/27 is projected to reach 509.3 million tonnes, a rise of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Although the total remains below the record trade volume of 2025/26, stronger maize exports notably contributed to this increase, with Argentina expected to ship up to 39 million tonnes. The global rice trade is forecast at 60.5 million tonnes, with overall rice shipments slightly below the 2025 record by 1.9%.