MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has established a goal of producing 662 million tonnes of coal annually by the year 2050 as part of a recently approved industry development plan. This target is incorporated into the scenario outlined in Russia’s revised coal expansion strategy. In 2024, coal output was approximately 443 million tonnes. The Russian government endorsed the plan through Order No. 2606-r on September 22, which sets forth long-term benchmarks for coal production, exports, and sector growth.
The strategy presents four potential routes for the coal industry until 2050. Under the primary scenario, production reaches 530.1 million tonnes by 2030 and 595.2 million tonnes by 2036. It then progresses to 662 million tonnes by 2050. The remaining scenarios project lower 2050 production levels, ranging from 318.9 million tonnes in the stress case to 586.4 million tonnes in the inertial case.
Along with production targets, Russia also set export goals. In the main scenario, coal exports are expected to hit 266.7 million tonnes by 2030. By 2036, exports are projected to increase to 320.2 million tonnes, reaching 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak highlighted that Russian coal exports grew by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The plan accounts for both domestic consumption and international trade.
Production and export objectives
The government’s initiative emphasizes maintaining current mining capacities while expanding additional coal resources. It envisions a greater emphasis on regions in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East, which together accounted for 48.3% of the country’s coal output in 2024. By 2050, this share is expected to grow between 53.9% and 56.7%. Russia reports more than 273 billion tonnes of proven coal reserves.
The plan also incorporates targets for coal processing and mining approaches. In 2024, processed coal, excluding lignite, represented 58.9% of total production. The strategy aims to elevate this figure to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining contributed 78.4% of production in 2024, with the goal to increase this to between 82% and 85% over the long term. The document also details measures related to productivity, technological advancement, safety, and environmental standards.
Coal industry plan extends through 2050
Russia will implement the plan in three phases. The initial phase, ending in 2030, focuses on expanding production and supporting the industry. The second phase, from 2031 to 2036, emphasizes the use of coal, processing technologies, and regional logistics. The final phase, from 2037 to 2050, will see further development and modernization. The Energy Ministry will oversee the program’s execution in coordination with other federal, regional authorities, and involved organizations, providing annual reports to the Economic Development Ministry as mandated by the government.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced the updated strategy during a government session on September 21. This document replaces Russia’s previous coal sector plan that was approved in 2020 and covered up to 2035. Novak mentioned that the new program projects a sixfold increase in the sector’s gross value added by 2050, with an overall multiplier effect nearing 10 trillion roubles. The target of 662 million tonnes remains part of the scenario, not an unconditional forecast.