GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – In its latest report, the World Trade Organization has increased its projection for worldwide merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 3.9 percent, up from the 1.9 percent forecast issued in March. The organization attributes this revision to robust trade performance in the first half of the year, supply chain adaptations, and increased investment in artificial intelligence. Despite major disruptions impacting energy, transport, and fertilizer markets, merchandise trade volume expanded by 3.5 percent during the first six months of 2026. Looking ahead, the WTO now predicts a 4.1 percent rise in merchandise trade for 2027.
Demand driven by artificial intelligence played a significant role in the trade growth during the initial half of 2026. Goods that enable AI, such as semiconductors and servers, contributed to 47 percent of the global merchandise trade expansion, with trade in these items surging by 67 percent compared to the previous year. Additionally, the WTO indicated that global spending on AI infrastructure is expected to grow by at least 30 percent in 2026. The increased demand for computing hardware supported trade activity, even as other sectors experienced setbacks due to conflicts and logistical challenges.
Adjustments in international supply chains also took place amid pressures on major commodity and shipping markets. Crude oil exports from the Middle East declined approximately 24 percent in the first half of 2026, while exports of liquefied natural gas from the region fell by 47 percent over the same period. However, increased shipments from alternative suppliers limited the overall decline in crude oil exports to around 6 percent globally, and LNG exports only decreased by 1 percent. Worldwide, container throughput saw a 3.9 percent increase through July, as trade was rerouted through different ports and corridors.
AI-driven goods bolster global merchandise trade
The positive outlook for goods starkly contrasts with the less optimistic forecast for commercial services trade. The WTO lowered its 2026 growth estimate for services trade volume from 4.8 percent in March to 3.3 percent. Disruptions in the Middle East significantly impacted transport and international travel, with international tourist arrivals dropping by 0.8 percent in the second quarter. Overall, the first-half increase was only 0.4 percent, and growth in travel expenditure slowed sharply between the two quarters.
In contrast, other service sectors showed resilience despite the travel and transport setbacks. Computer services exports grew by 18 percent in the first quarter from the previous year, with second-quarter growth estimated at 12 percent. Exports of financial services increased by 14 percent year-over-year in the same period. The WTO projects a 6.4 percent growth in commercial services trade volume for 2027 and anticipates global GDP growth of 2.6 percent in 2026, followed by 2.9 percent in 2027.
Trade expansion varies across regions
Regional forecasts reveal significant disparities in merchandise trade growth across different parts of the world. Asia is expected to lead with a 9.9 percent increase in exports for 2026. North America’s exports are forecast to grow by 5.7 percent, while Africa is projected at 5.6 percent. South America is anticipated to see a 3.4 percent rise, whereas Europe might experience a slight contraction of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the steepest decline, with merchandise exports expected to fall by 17.2 percent during the year.
Import growth also shows marked differences by region. Asia’s merchandise imports are forecast to increase by 9.5 percent, with Africa at 8.9 percent. North American imports are projected to grow by 1.4 percent, and Europe by 0.5 percent. Conversely, imports into the Middle East are expected to decrease by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that recent data demonstrate trade resilience but also reveal the uneven exposure to economic and geopolitical disruptions across regions.